If you take the CIA factbook figures on China's economy, then in purchasing power parity, China may equal the US gross domestic product by 2015 - provided, of course, that China grows at 8% per year (officially they had 9% growth last year - but the overall picture has been 8% growth, on average, year in and year out for the last couple decades) while the United States is pegged at a much more moderate 3% annual growth; anything less for China or more for the United States, and China's GDP doesn't match the United States for some years after 2015. Not bad, and fuel for the grist mills of punditry determined to have a "Chinese Century" to eclipse an annoying America. Of course, even if they got to GDP parity with the United States, their per-capita GDP (currently 1/8th that of the United States) would only moderately improve vis a vis the United States. What this means is that in spite of spectacular growth (which must be taken with a grain of salt because a tyrannical regime with no free press to check up on it is providing us the figures), China will remain a very poor, very backwards nation in comparison to the United States. In reality, we have little to fear from China - but reality is not the realm of tyrants.

As this news story in the Washington Times details, China is rapidly expanding its military power - especially that power (air and sea) which will allow China to project its power far outside Chinese territory. The gist of it is that China is working hell-for-leather to build a military force which can challenge the United States - rather alarmingly, the report states that some experts see war with China over Taiwan within two years or so. I'm not so sure of that - but with the Chinese economy burdened with bad debt and corruption, we could soon see a cooling off of China's red-hot economic growth...any such cooling would provide a two-fold problem for China's leadership...they desperately need continuing large infusions of cash in order to continue their military buildup and continue to convince the average Chinese that its better that the current crop of tyrants continue to rule China. The bargain was struck...as long as China's government provides spectacular growth and massive military spending, Army and People agree to remain supine under Chinese communist overlordship. What happens, though, when they deal gets broken by an economic recession?

I wont go so far as to predict a date for war between the United States and China; indeed, my hope is that firm US military and diplomatic efforts will convince the Chinese leadership that they simply should not challenge US supremacy - but hope is just that; hope. As a realist, I know that in situations like this, common-sense often does not prevail. We'll have to watch China, very carefully.