September 26, 2005
House Prospects for 2006

The Washington Times has an excellent look at the state of the House races for 2006:

"With President Bush's job ratings battered by the war in Iraq, high gas prices and public dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, 2006 looks to be a golden opportunity for House Democrats," election tracker Stuart Rothenberg told clients in his latest political newsletter.

His prediction: "modest, but not insignificant, Democratic gains in the order of four to six seats, or possibly a bit higher."

I can hear the Democrats now, jumping with joy...of course, at about this time in every election cycle since 1994, the Democrats have received stories like this, only to have their hopes dashed at election time. As the story goes on to note:

In 2004, Republicans won 59 percent of the 37 House races rated competitive by veteran election analyst Charlie Cook. In 2002, the GOP took 62 percent of the competitive races and in 2000 captured 50 percent of them.

The problem for our Democrats is that what they believe in is rejected by the broad majority of the American people - they can't beat us simply because the American people might be temporarily mad at us on this or that issue. For the Democrats to beat us, they will also have to come up with a message of change which is supported by the American people...advocating losing the war, advocating higher taxes, advocating abortion on demand; these are not things the majority will support. Personally, I think we're going to whack the Democrats quite hard in 2006 - with their continued slide towards the fever swamps of the left, we'll have a lot of political albatros' to hang 'round their necks.

Posted by Mark Noonan on September 26, 2005 02:04 PM
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Comments

It will be another "What happened?" moment for the clueless donks.

Posted by: Reverend Scaramonga [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 26, 2005 02:48 PM


The only possible problem the GOP Congress has is their rapant spending, especially before the Hurricanes. So long as President Bush does not repeat his fathers fatal mistake, the issue, like the spending, can be contained.

Posted by: Charlie On the Pennsylvania Turnpike [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 26, 2005 03:03 PM


Those are some bold statements. I always take these predictions with a grain of salt. I do remember how in July 2004 with Bush behind Kerry by an average of 5-8 points. Those were some dark days but Bush overcame.

Never the less, I don't take anything for granted and we can't assume that we will always win elections simply because "We are right, they are wrong".
Keep up the good fight.

Posted by: JAF at September 26, 2005 03:42 PM


JAF is right that we can't take anything for granted. It is not enough to BE right, we need to keep the message out there. For instance, the media has pushed the myth that Saddam had no WMD, so Iraq was a mistake, and we perhaps have not pointed out strongly enough that he definitely had WMD programs in place.
One problem is that liberals contort irrational thinking into slogans that slothful thinkers buy into. Pointing out fallacies requires a bit of complex thinking, although usually not much.
I do continue to have a guarded optimism about the American people's ability to cut through the BS, but we have to do our part, even if it includes punishing(through the voting process) those who fall away from the principles that have made the Republican Party strong.

Posted by: DebateRight [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 26, 2005 05:40 PM


Here is why Republicans should be OPTOMISTIC about 2006:

What happens every year around September?

Hurricanes.

What has the federal gummint, largely Republican, been focusing on lately?

Hurricanes.

What will happen over the next year?

The gummint will work hard to improve federal response to hurricanes.

So... what happens in September 2006?

More hurricanes will come, and the federal gummint will have a chance to show off how much better it responds in comparison to Hurricane Katrina.

Will the gummint look better? IT WILL BE HARD TO LOOK WORSE! In fact, even if they feds do NOTHING differently, the response will be seen as a massive improvement, because most of the actual problems with Katrina were at the state and local (democrat) level.

So, going into October 2006, people will see that Republicans accomplish things, and remember that democrats cause problems.

Some other ponderables:

Sure, Bush's numbers are down. Big deal.

After November 2004, Bush stopped campaigning. He hasn't been going around city to city making speeches about how great he is. And yet the democrats have not stopped campaigning since Bush won. When GOP candidates (and remember, none of them are named Bush) hit the campaign trail next year and start reminding people why we voted for them, polls will show sudden upsurge in GOP (and Presidential) popularity.

Sure, numbers are down. But the polls ask loaded questions:

"Do you approve/disapprove of Bush's handling of the war?"

What about all those of us hard-core neo-cons who fully support Bush and the war, but are unhappy because Bush is letting the left bully him in to pussyfooting around, when we should be going after Syria and Iran? A lot of us might say "disapprove," but that doesn't mean we would rather see some damn liberal pacifict in office handing our security and our sovereignty over to the UN!

Come 2006 elections, we on the right might take our frustrations out against the incumbents... but not in the general election. There are these things called PRIMARIES, and we might well see some incumbent RINOs ousted, with massive support for the GOP candidates in the general.

Just because people don't like "republicans" as represented by John McCain, doesn't mean they are going to vote for some democrat!

Will there be changes in 2006?

Yes. Odds are some comfortable incumbents will be replaced in the primaries. And odds are that some, but not all, of the replacements will end up losing to democrat challengers. But thanks to gerrymandering, many House seats are safe for the party, even if the incumbent is ousted.

We will see a MORE CONSERVATIVE House after 2006.

As for the Senate: well, more red-state democrats are up for re-election than blue-state republicans. We might lost Santorum, but they will lose Minnesota, Florida, and more.

Plus, don't be surprised if there is a successful recall in Louisiana...

The age of the democrats is over. Now the question becomes, what kind of Republicans are going to take over?

Posted by: Gullyborg [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 26, 2005 07:11 PM


I am just waiting to see if the GOP can find a spine. The Left has given us the Gift That Keeps on Giving, if we only had the gumption to do something with it.

The hoo-haw about how the feds dropped the ball in Louisiana? Well, the first thing that happened was the opportunity to show how a well-run state (Texas) can handle a problem. Nothing could have shown up the corrupt and inept LA government (Dems, all) better than the proof that an evacuation CAN be accomplished, if the locals know what they are doing. Half a million people in New Orleans---3 million in the Houston area. Hmmm.

And the whining about how the war in Iraq took all the money they needed to repair the levees? What a great opportunity to point out how many millions (billions?) of dollars have been dumped into Louisiana for the express purpose of building and repairing levees---and maybe even of pointing out where all that money really went.

As far as racisim is concerned, the race-baiters are proving themselves to be goofier than even we thought. Trying to portray this as an Administration effort to wipe out black people has just about everyone snickering. True, the dummies and dopes are buying it, but can anyone believe they weren't already in the Lefty camp anyway? The so-called "Reverend" Jesse and that clown Sharpton are making total fools of themselves, and just can't shut up.

In the meantime, many blacks are out of that fetid swamp they have called home for all their lives, and seeing what the rest of the country is like. It's harder to convince people that white people hate you when white people are feeding you, finding homes for you, and giving you jobs. Not handouts, but jobs. In other words, having faith in you, confidence in you, and treating you like human beings and not like mushrooms.

But the Republicans need to start using these gifts, having some gumption, and going after the Dems using their own issues against them. With some effort, and some backbone, a lot of good and valuable points could be made. I am just afraid we are going to sit by and let the Dems pile on, and refuse to get our hands dirty by fighting back.

Posted by: Almiranta [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 26, 2005 11:52 PM


Gullyborg,

It is just getting harder and harder for a Democrat in a Red State to win as a Democrat...even Harry Reid, during his re-election campaign last year, never mentioned in his campaign ads that he was a Democrat...and he's the Democrat's Senate Minority Leader! They can't show their faces in red America, because they are too tied on the national level to a leftwing becoming more hardcore and anti-American by the day.

As long as the GOP keeps putting out a reasonably decent plan, we'll keep winning...because the Democrats can't and won't put out what they truly believe.

Posted by: Mark Noonan [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 27, 2005 02:31 AM



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