If we could peer into the future and look at the impact of opposing public policy proposals so that we could compare them, it would greatly reduce the rancor since we would easily be able to see which alternative was better. Conservatives and liberals advocate different policies, and if we could see which would have better results we could make easier choices. Alas, we have political debates and must make policy decisions based on what we think may happen because we cannot see into the future.

Or can we? How can conservatives show that the status quo is untenable and that reform is critical? At their heart, the problems facing Social Security and Medicare, the twin entitlements that will bankrupt America unless reformed, are demographic, just like the airline and auto industries' problems. (There are competitive issues as well, which left-wing regulations exacerbate, but set those aside for now.) Both are suffering from crushing legacy costs associated with a ballooning cohort of retirees. As the ratio of retirees that must be supported to the workers who must support them increases, so does the strain on the pyramid-scheme that passes for a pension and health care system.

If Republicans were sincere about entitlement reform, they'd be pushing it more strenuously. And if they were smart about it, they'd be able to use the crises facing the private sector as a window to the future. If Americans understood that looking at GM/Delphi/Delta Air Lines/etc. now was looking at the federal government in a couple of decades, chances are they'd be more amenable to meaningful reform.

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.gopbloggers.org/mt/majority.cgi/2608