Larry Sabato, always interesting even when I think he's got it wrong, has a very good analysis of the election prospects for 2006 - bottom line, for Sabato, is don't expect too much to change:

Turnover in the modern U.S. House of Representatives is minimal. Redistricting and the advantages of incumbency help to insure it. Take a look at the last couple of midterm elections for proof.

In 1998, President Clinton's sixth-year election, just 33 House members out of 435 stepped down from their posts--many to seek another elected office such as a Senate seat or a Governorship. A mere seven U.S. Representatives lost their House seats through defeat, one in a primary and the other six in the general election. The overall reelection rate for House members seeking another term was 98 percent.

In 2002, President Bush's first midterm election, just 35 House members retired--almost a carbon copy of 1998. But wait, what's this? Sixteen House members were beaten for reelection, eight in primaries and eight in the general election. It looks like an outbreak of competition, except for two factors: (1) 2002 was the first election after the 2001 Census-driven redistricting, and some incumbents were drawn into the same districts--so a few incumbents had to lose. (2) The reelection rate for House members plummeted from the 98 percent of 1998 all the way down to...96 percent. So it was still very safe for incumbents to come out and play.

What about in the Senate? It's true that these high-profile contests can result in greater turnover, yet the reelection rates are still sky-high. Only five incumbents retired in each of 1998 and 2002, with three incumbents losing in 1998 and four going down to defeat (one in a primary) in 2002. Therefore, the reelection rate for U.S. Senators in 1998 was 89 percent and in 2002 was 86 percent. Senators were not as safe as House members, but the odds favored them by a wide margin.

Sabato goes on to note that with the Democrats needing a net 15 seat gain for a House majority and only 16 Republicans retiring along with 8 retiring Democrats, the odds of the Democrats pulling off that 15 seat gain are pretty slim.

This is good, as far as it goes - but I think that there are a couple things missing from all analysis these days. They are intangible, and so very hard to quantify, but without taking them into consideration, all prognostications are flawed.

The first is morale - how are the respective parties feeling these days? One thing I've noted about our Democrats is that they are very demoralised...the lack hope for the future, and thus are just less motivated to do anything about it. If you believe that the world is dying because of human activity and that abortion is a good thing, then you don't wake up in the morning bright eyed and bushy tailed, ready for the tasks of the day.

The second is nuts and bolts political efficiency - how the respective parties organize themselves for victory. Our Democrats aren't organized at all. Think of it like this - a lot of GOPers get off the ranch, but it doesn't cause that much a stir...but when a Democrat gets off the ranch, like Feingold and his censure motion, it causes consternation in Democratic ranks. They simply don't know what to do - they don't have the structure to absorb sudden events, and their means of consensus building is cumbersome and takes weeks, if not months, to work out. Democrats, when faced with something new, tend to wait and see how things go before declaring themselves...they do this because their myriad interest groups are merciless on anyone who strays, so until the interest groups have come up with their views, Democrats tend to hold back.

In matters of organization and spirit, I think the GOP is miles ahead of the competition - when combined with the raw electoral landscape, I see this as resulting in a net gain of GOP seats this November. Time will tell if I'm right - and I've developed a fond taste for crow ever since I got into poltiical predictions - but my mind and spirit are telling me that November will be a big surprise for most people.

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