Though to listen to the MSM, you'd be convinced that Nancy Pelosi is right about measuring for new drapes in the Speaker's office - but Jonathan Last over at The Philadelphia Inquirer is seeing some intersting writing on the wall:

For months, the numbers indicated that Democrats were poised to make gains in the House and Senate. The numbers still look good for Democrats, although not as good as earlier in the summer. Let's start with the generic congressional ballot.

This poll question isn't a great indicator of electoral success, but its dx/dt (the rate of change of x with respect to time, t) can illuminate broader changes in the political climate. In June, Scott Rasmussen's generic congressional ballot gave Democrats a whopping 47 percent to 34 percent lead among likely voters. His latest poll, conducted in mid-August, showed the Democrats' lead shrinking to 8 percentage points. The Gallup generic ballot gave Democrats a 54-38 margin in June. In the latest Gallup, those numbers narrow to a 47-45 edge. But remember: These numbers are useful only as indicators of the general atmosphere. People vote for candidates, not generic party labels.

Out in the land of actual candidates, Democrats still have the advantage. But the numbers there are closing, too. (Remember the Second Rule of Politics: All races tighten.) In the House, only about 40 races were in play at the beginning of the summer. That number has shrunk. Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to elect a Speaker Pelosi. The way things look now, they should gain at least eight seats. About 16 races remain toss-ups.

Last goes on through the rest of his piece to tick off the races to watch, and it is a good list - but the bottom line is that the dynamic of the 2006 midterm has switched from anti-GOP to neutral, and that bodes well for the GOP (it never was, and never could be, pro-Democrat because the Democrats have never produced a positive agenda for change). My bet is that by election day, the GOP will have sufficiently re-cast the 2006 debate to ensure not just a hold of Congress, but increased majorities in both Houses.

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