So says the latest Rasmussen Survey:

Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell's lead over Republican Mike McGavick has slumped by eleven percentage points—the same amount by which it spiked in our early-September poll.

Cantwell now leads McGavick 48% to 42% (see crosstabs). That's the same spread the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed in mid-August, though both contenders have added a couple points to their support since then.

The relapse means we're shifting the race from "Democrat" to "Leans Democrat" in our Senate Balance of Power ratings. This race has shifted ground more than any other state, but always between “Leans Democrat” and “Democrat.”

Now, the GOP has problems in five Senate seats - Montana, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Rhode Island and Ohio. In none of these races, however, is the GOP out of the running to hold their seats...in other words, if the Democrats were to pick up two of the five, that would be an excellent showing for the Democratcs.

Meanwhile, my count is that the Democrats are having trouble in Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey, Maryland and Michigan. That is five GOP seats and five Democrat seats in jeopardy - but it is six Democratic seats if you count Connecticut, where Lieberman won't be the most loyal of Democrats if he win re-election.

This is hardly the formula, six weeks out from an election, to indicate a political tidal wave heading either direction - and given that the GOP is starting to surge now, the likely outcome after all is said and done is the GOP to lose one of its five seats, and the Democrats to lose three of their five, plus having Lieberman around to bedevil the Democrats (never sure if he'll back the Democrats or not - hard to draw up political plans with that situation). The net would be a two seat GOP gain.

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