With the recent string of polls showing an alleged swing to the Democrats, I think these race-by-race polls loom very large in making predictions:

Democratic congressional candidate Ed Perlmutter is leading Republican Rick O'Donnell by 6 percentage points in the closely watched 7th Congressional District, according to a new poll.

Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave, meanwhile, holds a 10- point lead over Democratic challenger, state Rep. Angie Paccione.

The results for the 7th District - one of the most evenly split in the country - indicate the race is as tight as most political watchers had anticipated.

Against this headwind and in only moderately red Colorado, to be ahead by 10 in one key House race and only down by six in the most competitive Colorado House race shows that the alleged Democratic wave is still just that, alleged. No actual evidence for its existence. Further to the point, the Democrat in the 7th is doing very well among unaffiliated voters - ie, those least likely to show up, while no poll can dake in to account the GOP's superb get-out-the-vote effort.

I'm sticking with my prediction: GOP gains in both House and Senate.

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