October 11, 2006
Assessing The Foley Effect

A Hartford Courant story today gave an interesting overview of the impact the Foley scandal in regards to the coming elections.

An ABC News/Washington Post survey taken Oct. 5 to 8 found that three of every four respondents did not think Democrats would have handled the Foley matter any better, and roughly two in three thought Democrats were pursuing the matter for political gain, not to raise legitimate concerns.

"The Foley scandal has not earned the Republican leadership any goodwill, but neither does it look like a point of differentiation for the Democrats," poll director Gary Langer said.

A Pew Research Center survey taken Sept. 21 to Oct. 4 had similar findings. Before the Foley scandal broke, voters preferred Democrats to Republicans by 13 percentage points - and after the congressman resigned Sept. 29, the margin was the same.

Job approval of Republican leaders, 33 percent before Foley quit, went up 1 percentage point afterward.

In the days ahead, said some analysts, Democrats need to be careful they do not appear to be leading a lynch mob.

But, what have they been doing? Leading a lynch mob.

As the days pass, I believe we'll learn more about how Democrats knew about this story for quite some time, yet held it out in order to gain the most political advantage of it. If that is proven to be the case, they have no moral high ground to claim with this scandal.

Despite the fact these polls numbers are exactly what the Democrats want to hear, there's plenty of reason for the GOP to be concerned. They'll have to handle this scandal just right and hope the Democrats overplay their hand.

Posted by Matt Margolis on October 11, 2006 12:54 PM
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