March 05, 2007
Sacre Bleu! Leading French Scientist Decries Global Warming Hype
by Jonathan R. at 01:46 PM

Just read.

Claude Allegre, one of France's leading socialists and among her most celebrated scientists, was among the first to sound the alarm about the dangers of global warming...

Fifteen years ago, Dr. Allegre was among the 1500 prominent scientists who signed "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity," a highly publicized letter stressing that global warming's "potential risks are very great" and demanding a new caring ethic that recognizes the globe's fragility in order to stave off "spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmental collapse."...

Since then, governments throughout the western world and bodies such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have commissioned billions of dollars worth of research by thousands of scientists. With a wealth of data now in, Dr. Allegre has recanted his views. To his surprise, the many climate models and studies failed dismally in establishing a man-made cause of catastrophic global warming. Meanwhile, increasing evidence indicates that most of the warming comes of natural phenomena. Dr. Allegre now sees global warming as over-hyped and an environmental concern of second rank...

Dr. Allegre's skepticism is noteworthy in several respects. For one, he is an exalted member of France's political establishment, a friend of former Socialist president Lionel Jospin, and, from 1997 to 2000, his minister of education, research and technology, charged with improving the quality of government research through closer co-operation with France's educational institutions. For another, Dr. Allegre has the highest environmental credentials. The author of early environmental books, he fought successful battles to protect the ozone layer from CFCs and public health from lead pollution. His break with scientific dogma over global warming came at a personal cost: Colleagues in both the governmental and environmental spheres were aghast that he could publicly question the science behind climate change.

But Dr. Allegre had allegiances to more than his socialist and environmental colleagues. He is, above all, a scientist of the first order, the architect of isotope geodynamics, which showed that the atmosphere was primarily formed early in the history of the Earth, and the geochemical modeller of the early solar system.

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Comments

Well Mr Allegre must have read your post about global warming on Mars (still a ridiculus idea)

You do realize he's a former scientist turned politician (and well past retirement age). And we all know how much we can trust politicians....

For more fun facts
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/con-allegre-ma-non-troppo/


Allègre mentions two scientific examples to demonstrate that there is something fundamentally wrong in the IPCC statements on the reality of climate change. First, he commented on the disappearing glaciers of the Kilimanjaro, sometimes treated as the “Panda” of anthropogenic climate change. Citing a "Nature" study (which was in fact published in Science) by Pierre Sepulchre and colleagues from my laboratory, he claimed that this modelling study demonstrated that Kilimanjaro’s glaciers are controlled by tectonic activity. In fact, the article describes the impact of tectonics of the East African Highlands on Indian ocean moisture transport ---- on a time scale of millions of years! This confuses glacier variability over the last ~100 years with rainfall trends extending back to the time of the early hominids

Allègre's misunderstanding was immediately followed by another one. Citing a recent study on relatively stable Antarctic snowfall over the last 30 years (Monaghan et al, 2006, discussed here) , he highlighted what he thought was a clear contradiction to future climate simulations of global circulation models (melting of the Antarctic ice sheet). However, that's not what they predict. All models predict a comparably stable Antarctic ice sheet for the 21th century in which comparably moderate temperature changes in Antarctica are compensated by slight increase in snowfall. The Monaghan et al study does not contradict these model scenarios.

Posted by: neologizer [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 6, 2007 02:37 AM


Nice post, but incomplete. There are a few things you did not say.

Firstly, Allegre was one of the worst ministers of education we've had in the last decades. He managed to have students from high school up in the streets demanding his resignation for a full month, Which had not happened since may of 1968. I should know, I was there in the streets chanting with the others (not in 1968, in 1999)

Secondly, he's not "prominent" anymore. After his bief tenure as minister, he completely faded from th public eye.

Thirdly and finally, he's a geologist, who turned to politics because, frankly, he was no good at science. Since he became a politican, he's stopped doing science. So I wouldn't trust him on anything scientific-related, nor take his opinion as representative of anything but a bad-scientist-turned-bad-politician's opinion.

As for the scientific arguments he made, frankly, neologizer picked at them better than I could, and for a siple reason : this did not make the news in France (so much for the notoriety of Allegre) so I didn't review them.

Posted by: french guy at March 6, 2007 07:02 AM



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